Individual-based model lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands

van Bemmelen, R.; Soudijn, F.; Benden, D.; Potiek, A.; Chen, C.; Hintzen, N.; Wilkes, T.; van Kooten, T.; Gyimesi, A. (2021). Individual-based model lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands (Report No. 21-168). Report by Bureau Waardenburg bv. Report for Rijkswaterstaat.

@techreport{van Bemmelen-2021-,
author = {van Bemmelen, R and Soudijn, F and Benden, D and Potiek, A and Chen, C and Hintzen, N and Wilkes, T and van Kooten, T and Gyimesi, A},
title = {Individual-based model lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands},
institution = {Bureau Waardenburg bv},
year = {2021},
month = {dec},
number = {21-168},
address = {Netherlands},
url = {https://www.noordzeeloket.nl/en/@254685/individual-based-model-lesser-black-backed-gulls/},
keywords = {Wind Energy, Fixed Offshore Wind, Collision, Displacement, Birds, Seabirds},
}

Export Citation to BibTex

TY - RPRT
TI - Individual-based model lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands
AU - van Bemmelen, R
AU - Soudijn, F
AU - Benden, D
AU - Potiek, A
AU - Chen, C
AU - Hintzen, N
AU - Wilkes, T
AU - van Kooten, T
AU - Gyimesi, A
AB - The Dutch KEC (Kader Ecologie en Cumulatie; Framework for Assessing Ecological and Cumulative Effects (Rijkswaterstaat 2019)) used the Band model (Band 2012) to estimate the number of bird victims caused by collisions with offshore wind turbines. However, both the Band model and its stochastic variant (Marine Scotland 2018) are quite sensitive to various parameters, including flux (intensity of bird movements), flight height and the level of avoidance. The margin of uncertainty in the number of predicted victims is therefore very large. In addition, recent research in the UK has shown that a number of assumptions in the Band model regarding bird flight behaviour do not correspond to how birds actually behave.An additional or alternative method is therefore needed that considers the actual flight behaviour of birds in response to wind turbines, reducing sensitivities and uncertainties relating to the predicted number of victims. Individual- or Agent-Based Models (IBMs) can be used for this purpose. IBMs are widely used as an instrument for predicting the consequences of changes in species' habitats. It is also possible to estimate the cumulative consequences of several changes in the habitat.Rijkswaterstaat (RWS) has commissioned Bureau Waardenburg (BuWa) to develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) for lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands and to determine the international desirability and feasibility of an IBM for three additional (priority) seabird species.In this report, we present the methods of model development and various outputs produced by the model. Furthermore, this report also describes knowledge gaps for further research and a feasibility study on the three additional species that were identified by researchers, nature protection policy makers and other stakeholders as of priority interest during an international interview carried out in the course of the project.
CY - Netherlands
DA - 2021/12//
PY - 2021
SP - 103
PB - Bureau Waardenburg bv
SN - 21-168
UR - https://www.noordzeeloket.nl/en/@254685/individual-based-model-lesser-black-backed-gulls/
LA - English
KW - Wind Energy
KW - Fixed Offshore Wind
KW - Collision
KW - Displacement
KW - Birds
KW - Seabirds
ER -

Export Citation to RIS

Abstract

The Dutch KEC (Kader Ecologie en Cumulatie; Framework for Assessing Ecological and Cumulative Effects (Rijkswaterstaat 2019)) used the Band model (Band 2012) to estimate the number of bird victims caused by collisions with offshore wind turbines. However, both the Band model and its stochastic variant (Marine Scotland 2018) are quite sensitive to various parameters, including flux (intensity of bird movements), flight height and the level of avoidance. The margin of uncertainty in the number of predicted victims is therefore very large. In addition, recent research in the UK has shown that a number of assumptions in the Band model regarding bird flight behaviour do not correspond to how birds actually behave.

An additional or alternative method is therefore needed that considers the actual flight behaviour of birds in response to wind turbines, reducing sensitivities and uncertainties relating to the predicted number of victims. Individual- or Agent-Based Models (IBMs) can be used for this purpose. IBMs are widely used as an instrument for predicting the consequences of changes in species' habitats. It is also possible to estimate the cumulative consequences of several changes in the habitat.

Rijkswaterstaat (RWS) has commissioned Bureau Waardenburg (BuWa) to develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) for lesser black-backed gulls in the Netherlands and to determine the international desirability and feasibility of an IBM for three additional (priority) seabird species.

In this report, we present the methods of model development and various outputs produced by the model. Furthermore, this report also describes knowledge gaps for further research and a feasibility study on the three additional species that were identified by researchers, nature protection policy makers and other stakeholders as of priority interest during an international interview carried out in the course of the project.